Feb. 7th, 2007

partly: (Myria)
Well, not me, but Myr.

We had a nice dinner, a pleasant presentation and Myr won $50.00 for the Stock Market Game. Top prize was a cool hundred, but she had to split with her partner. S is a wonderful kid, so all is good with that.

They have plans to take part in the spring contest, too. They have their sights on winning state, which would net them a trip to NYC. I don't see that happening. They won with slow and steady investment. They bought a good deal and stuck with it. If they would have went for the riskier stocks, they could have made more, faster, but that is very, very tricky. You rely on a lot more hands on manipulation and luck than anything else.

It will be fun to see what they can do, though. As S said, Myr is a worrywart and that helps with stock market stuff. I think she'd hate to lose, and that will hold her back from taking those really big risks. That' s not a bad thing, but it may not get the win on a game like this.

Ripples

Feb. 7th, 2007 11:13 pm
partly: (Pondering)
Last summer when we were on vacation and driving through the breadbasket of America (the only place I ever take vacation) I kept seeing signs along the fields that said the fields could be used to grow fuel for the cars driving along the roads.

Corn-based fuels is a wonderful idea that will help lessen America's dependance on foreign oil. There is a growing trend for more and more ethanol in fuel and as a complete fuel substitute.

And this trend is manifesting itself in higher corn prices. If any of you out there have been investing in corn futures lately, you know that the price of corn has been on the rise for the past month or two and that things are really starting to look up for the corn farmer. If the demand for ethanol keeps on the rise, it will mean nothing but good news for the corn-belt and corn farmers.

In a totally related note, there is a economic problem growing in Mexico City these days. It's all over the news and people are getting worried. It seems the price of tortilla's have tripled in the past month and it's starting to impact the Mexican economy as a whole. The reason for this is obvious: the price of corn has been on the rise for the past month or two and things are beginning to look bleak for those who rely on inexpensive corn to feed their families.

I always find it interesting when people speak about a 'global economy' without really understanding what that means.

Yes, ethanol and corn-based fuels could be the ticket away from the problematic fossil-fuels. Yes, higher corn prices will help save farmers and preserver farmland and farm-life.

On the other hand, what will happen to the food market when a large percentage of the corn crop is turned into fuel, rather than food. And what happens to the wheat crop when corn becomes a better money maker. I mean you can't fault a farmer for growing the crop that is most in demand and that will put his children through college and give him a retirement he can live off of. So when these farmers start to till more and more corn acreage and less and less wheat acreage, what happens to the market where all that wheat went.

Yes, there is a surplus of wheat grown in this country and the US government buys a great deal of it. Some of it may just rot away in silos, but most of it is sold to other countries or given to needy ones. Once that supply of wheat dwindles because the US needs to become self-reliant for their fuel needs (and we do), what will happen to all the people who need the wheat that we used to grow? When the price of wheat goes up, fueled by a lower supply, how will already poor and starving countries get food?

Perhaps a country like Brazil, that has it's own supply of fuel will see a growing market for wheat and corn. The pampas are fertile and with the magic of fertilizers and pesticides and genetically enhanced crops, it will be able to really hit the world market in a hurry. The rain forest, already threatened, will certainly lose out the the profit intensive corn and wheat crops. They wouldn't even have to sell to the US, but just pick up the slack that will come from the US keeping its crops in its boarders.

The world being what it is, a stronger focus on ethanol is ineveitable. With a focus on ethanol, higher corn prices will be inevitable. What ripples will come from that -- be it a better living for farmers, cleaner air for us or a sudden crisis in the food supply -- will all have to be dealt with.

There is always a give and take. In a global society, any actions will impact the entire globe -- hence, the name. If we were a smaller nation, this wouldn't be a concern. If we wouldn't produce as much food as we do, this wouldn't be a concern. If there wouldn't be poverty and starvation around the world, this wouldn't be a problem.

And, it may not be. The amount of grain that one acre of US cropland can produce staggers the mind. With higher crop prices, more crop may be produced and higher yields may even be possible. Other countries may be able to, responsibly, increase their crop production to cover any markets that can no longer turn to American farmers.

I don't know. It's all very interesting to me. I'm sure it will make fascinating news once the press figures out a way to present it as a tragedy or impending crisis. I just thought it worth a mention before it becomes that.

It's said that an army runs on its stomach, I know that the world certainly does. Our great cities wouldn't last long if there was no food coming into them. Starving people can't do much of anything except die and rebel -- occasionally both at the same time.I've always felt that America's greatest strength it's ability to feed itself and a large part of the world. I'm not sure if this will hinder that strength or is just another way to use it.

History is great to study, it's usually hell to live through. And right now, in a whole lot of ways, we are living in a world that is making history. This is just another way that is happening.

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