Ripples

[partly]

Last summer when we were on vacation and driving through the breadbasket of America (the only place I ever take vacation) I kept seeing signs along the fields that said the fields could be used to grow fuel for the cars driving along the roads.

Corn-based fuels is a wonderful idea that will help lessen America's dependance on foreign oil. There is a growing trend for more and more ethanol in fuel and as a complete fuel substitute.

And this trend is manifesting itself in higher corn prices. If any of you out there have been investing in corn futures lately, you know that the price of corn has been on the rise for the past month or two and that things are really starting to look up for the corn farmer. If the demand for ethanol keeps on the rise, it will mean nothing but good news for the corn-belt and corn farmers.

In a totally related note, there is a economic problem growing in Mexico City these days. It's all over the news and people are getting worried. It seems the price of tortilla's have tripled in the past month and it's starting to impact the Mexican economy as a whole. The reason for this is obvious: the price of corn has been on the rise for the past month or two and things are beginning to look bleak for those who rely on inexpensive corn to feed their families.

I always find it interesting when people speak about a 'global economy' without really understanding what that means.

Yes, ethanol and corn-based fuels could be the ticket away from the problematic fossil-fuels. Yes, higher corn prices will help save farmers and preserver farmland and farm-life.

On the other hand, what will happen to the food market when a large percentage of the corn crop is turned into fuel, rather than food. And what happens to the wheat crop when corn becomes a better money maker. I mean you can't fault a farmer for growing the crop that is most in demand and that will put his children through college and give him a retirement he can live off of. So when these farmers start to till more and more corn acreage and less and less wheat acreage, what happens to the market where all that wheat went.

Yes, there is a surplus of wheat grown in this country and the US government buys a great deal of it. Some of it may just rot away in silos, but most of it is sold to other countries or given to needy ones. Once that supply of wheat dwindles because the US needs to become self-reliant for their fuel needs (and we do), what will happen to all the people who need the wheat that we used to grow? When the price of wheat goes up, fueled by a lower supply, how will already poor and starving countries get food?

Perhaps a country like Brazil, that has it's own supply of fuel will see a growing market for wheat and corn. The pampas are fertile and with the magic of fertilizers and pesticides and genetically enhanced crops, it will be able to really hit the world market in a hurry. The rain forest, already threatened, will certainly lose out the the profit intensive corn and wheat crops. They wouldn't even have to sell to the US, but just pick up the slack that will come from the US keeping its crops in its boarders.

The world being what it is, a stronger focus on ethanol is ineveitable. With a focus on ethanol, higher corn prices will be inevitable. What ripples will come from that -- be it a better living for farmers, cleaner air for us or a sudden crisis in the food supply -- will all have to be dealt with.

There is always a give and take. In a global society, any actions will impact the entire globe -- hence, the name. If we were a smaller nation, this wouldn't be a concern. If we wouldn't produce as much food as we do, this wouldn't be a concern. If there wouldn't be poverty and starvation around the world, this wouldn't be a problem.

And, it may not be. The amount of grain that one acre of US cropland can produce staggers the mind. With higher crop prices, more crop may be produced and higher yields may even be possible. Other countries may be able to, responsibly, increase their crop production to cover any markets that can no longer turn to American farmers.

I don't know. It's all very interesting to me. I'm sure it will make fascinating news once the press figures out a way to present it as a tragedy or impending crisis. I just thought it worth a mention before it becomes that.

It's said that an army runs on its stomach, I know that the world certainly does. Our great cities wouldn't last long if there was no food coming into them. Starving people can't do much of anything except die and rebel -- occasionally both at the same time.I've always felt that America's greatest strength it's ability to feed itself and a large part of the world. I'm not sure if this will hinder that strength or is just another way to use it.

History is great to study, it's usually hell to live through. And right now, in a whole lot of ways, we are living in a world that is making history. This is just another way that is happening.

Comments

[imbri6.livejournal.com]

My concern about corn-based Ethanol is the frequent statements purporting to be fact that it takes as much energy to grow and produce as you get out of the process at the end. That there's no real net advantage. I don't claim to know for certain, and there's a lot of smart people arguing both sides of the issue, but it sure seems that a question exists. Makes me curious...

[finabair.livejournal.com]

You could say that about almost any source of energy, however. Refining oil takes a lot of energy, too. I keep hearing bits and pieces on this topic lately. The big bonus for corn-based ethanol would be political, IMO - we'd reduce our dependence on the Middle East for oil.

And they're talking about using grasses - which apparently due to their growth density could be a much more effective crop to use - for ethanol production as well. There was even a study I heard about in Minnesota where native grasses were being used for ethanol production. That would make the ecologists happier than corn, so the whole thingy could move in a totally different direction pretty darned fast.

I still strongly favor getting wind and solar energy to more commonplace usage *while* exploring alternatives like this, though.

[imbri6.livejournal.com]

If they can use grasses, do they also use the corn stalks when making ethanol? Maybe down south they could use kudzu! That stuff grows a foot a day in the high summer, and it's everywhere! I've heard great things about industrial hemp as well. Not sure it can be made into ethanol but it can be made into paper and cloth and grows *fast*, needs a lot less tending than other crops, and really isn't "pot". Wish we'd stop being so paranoid about the "drug war" and explore industrial hemp for a change...

[amilyn.livejournal.com]

I think kudzu should DEFINITELY be used for something constructive.

Dood...you'd think humans would, by now, have figured out that Introducing Non-native Species To A New Area Is Bad (see: Rabbits, Australia).

[imbri6.livejournal.com]

I've heard from several sources now that the Japanese consider us insane for not appreciating kudzu. Apparently the plant is almost 100% edible, and they consider it a delicacy. I even heard one place that they export kudzu from the US to Japan because they either can't grow enough or consider ours superior or something. They use the pulp inside the stalks as a starch (ala potatoes/flour/etc) and the leaves are supposedly quite good in salad. Even the smaller fronds are supposed to be good for something.

*shrug* Whatever.

[finabair.livejournal.com]

Yes, there was some discussion (wherever I heard it) about using stalks and leaves of corn, also. But some of our grasses just get better masses per acre.

(Sorry, could not resist rhyming. Blame it on the margaritas.)

[partly.livejournal.com]

Grasses are beneficial in other ways, too. They require less cultivation and if you can use native grasses they are more hardy. A good grass can thrive for many, many years without adding anything to the ground or replanting. Many are more resistant to blight and pests. All good points.

Besides, some grass species are absolutely beautiful. I often thought I'd love to have see the plains in full growth, up to five feet tall, blowing in the wind. Some even have a very powerful smell when in bloom, too.

Of course, allergies would be a killer.

[partly.livejournal.com]

I'm not sure about the energy that goes into it. I know that you have to account for the energy that goes into the planting, tending and harvesting, as well as the refining, so I wouldn't doubt it.

As with all new technologies there is an insane amount of money that has to be poured into it before it can even be judged worthy of the effort.

It may be that its only in the process of trying to make this work, that a better idea is found. Unfortunately, the pressure is on for the government to lead this charge or at least pay for it, and scares me. Because politics is inherently self-serving and too often perverted for power-grabbing purposes. I'm afraid that the government will believe that this is the only way and stifle the possible other discoveries.

[amilyn.livejournal.com]

This is all so true and interesting.

What I haven't been able to figure out yet is how we are going to come up with the fuel to turn the corn into ethanol in an efficient/effective way since the amount of energy required to create X amount of ethanol is greater than the amount of energy supplied by that X amount of ethanol. I'm not sure if hydro- or wind power can supply the energy needed to convert corn into ethanol without using up non-replaceable fuels to turn the replaceable commodity into, well, replaceable fuel. This is one of the things I'm interested in hearing more data on. Additionally, I'm interested in hearing if battery power (and thus hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles for sunny areas, etc.) is actually a cleaner force in the long run when the toxicity of production and disposal are taken into account.

I wish everything weren't so bloody complicated, you know?

[imbri6.livejournal.com]

I wish everything weren't so bloody complicated, you know?

AMEN SISTER!!!!

And I can't get past the idea that people are almost continually messing with the data...

[partly.livejournal.com]

And I can't get past the idea that people are almost continually messing with the data...

The people are creating the data. The mere fact of wanting to quantify something implies messing with it. There's a scientific idea that merely observing something changes it -- or rather, the act of observing something requires interpretation. So it's different no matter what (as quoted from finabair).

By wanting to use data you are already choosing what data to gather, what to look at and how to structure the information. You can do that all with the most open mind, and still miss out an what's really there. Some times you can luck out and find that the data you gather actually shows the opposite, but too often what your missing isn't the opposite, but rather something entirely different that your data doesn't even recognize.

And Amy's right, the world it just to complicated most times. Most times it's not intentional evil that does us in, but the accidental, unintentional kind. But that's a whole 'nother post. *grin*

[partly.livejournal.com]

It may be cynical and it may be just to damn free-market-economy based, but I always felt that until the price of gas got high enough, alternative fuels would never be found. Until the potential profit outweighed the costs of developing it, nothing would happen -- and it wouldn't matter how much money the government threw at it.

After all, necessity is the mother of invention for a reason.

Battery power -- or power cells as they are called -- are looking good, but they need more research too. Since the government can't do a damn thing right, I'm hoping that they keep their noses out of it instead of putting there money in one thing (like ethanol) and killing the other ideas.

I think that an idea like the x-prize would work. They offered a cool $1 mil to anyone who could make a reusable space craft.

But there's just so much money invested in the big businesses already, I think its got to come from some where else.